25 October 2010

Ontario Civic Election: How Are Paulie, Winnicki and Andrews Doing

We've been following the results as they've come in. Not all of the polls have closed (and these results are not final in any case) but so far things are going to form.

In Toronto where Rob Ford has been declared the victor, Don Andrews has received 988 votes with 1831 of 1870 Polls Reporting. This represents 0.129% of the total vote.

Over in Mississauga, Paulie has received 889 votes with 226 of 231 polls reporting, representing 0.66% of the total vote.

Things seem to be a little slower in London, but with 425 of 900 polls reporting. Winnicki has received 38 total votes, or 0.2% of the total. If this continues, Winnicki should get between 75 and 85 votes by the end of the night.

The numbers aren't surprising in the least. We'll discuss the implications later.

UPDATE 1: The numbers are all in, at least in Mississauga.

The final unofficial tally for Paulie is 917 votes, or 0.65% of the total vote.

In Toronto, it looks like when all is said and done, Don Andrews will finish with a little over 1000 votes, perhaps reaching 1100, though that looks to be a long shot since he's currently at 1023 (0.127% of the vote with five polling stations left to report).

In London, Winnicki has 101 votes (0.2%) with 607 of 900 polling stations reporting. If he maintains these numbers, Winnicki will be looking at about 150 votes by the end of the night.

Civic elections are pretty notorious for their low voter turnout, so we expected the total number of voters would be low. While the voter turnout has still been abysmal, they are a bit higher than we had anticipated. We had certainly expected that Andrews, Fromm and Winnicki would finish with under 1% of the total vote each, which has turned out to be accurate. We actually expected Paulie's percentage of the vote to be a bit higher in the o.75% to 0.85% range, and for a while it looked like that would happen when Paulie was at 0.78% of the total vote count.

UPDATE 2: Winnicki finishes with 234 votes (0.2%) with all 900 polling stations reporting. It also looks like London had a higher than expected turnout as well, as did a number of other cities.

In Mississauga, the increase in voters was really quite marked. Last election in 2006 saw 107,531 people vote in the mayoral race. This year the number was 143,501. Even taking into account the fact the city has grown during the intervening years, this number is a big jump when compared to previous elections:

2010: 143,501

2006: 107,531 (24.72%)

2003: 81,533 (19.99%)

2000: 97,028 (25.60%)

1997: 69,617 (20.90%)


We don't know the current population of the city, but we would imagine that the 2010 is close to 30%.

Still, it really is disappointing to see how few people seem to give a damn about who is running their respective cities.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Democracy... where the rest of the world tells you to STFU!"

Anonymous said...

I was expecting Paulie to get 0.666% of the vote. Once again, Fromm lets his side down.

Anonymous said...

Fromm gets over 900 votes? A whole lot of stupid people out there.

Davegeek said...

On the depressing side both Fromm and Winnicki did better than the pessimists in your pool thought they would.

nos200 said...

Davegeek: True, they did a little better than we had expected, but the numbers don't tell the entire story.

Take Mississauga for example. We had anticipated a voter turnout in the range of 111,000 people or so, keeping with the general 20-25% turnout in past elections. Instead, more than 140,000 voted which is a larger number than we had expected. So while he actually received a slightly smaller percentage of the vote than we had anticipated, the number of people who voted for him was a little higher.

Another way to look at it is that in the midst of an economic downturn where immigrants often bare the brunt of the blame for, "taking jobs from 'real' Canadians," Paulie could still manage only 0.65% of the total vote running on an anti-immigrant/anti-immigration platform. That should be of some comfort even if we're saddened that more than 900 people bought into the Paulie argument.

Or did they? Was every vote for Paulie an endorsement of his views? Or was some of it as a result of hearing his name in the media and seeing election campaign signs, but not really knowing what he stood for? Or, perhaps, some people didn't like any of the candidates so Paulie was a protest vote?

All speculation, but we don' think it is far fetched.

Anonymous said...

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Europe is facing similar threatening developments. The deportation of the Roma in France, the semi-racist remarks of german Bundesbanker Sarrazin, Geert Wilders, activities of the EU’s border agency Frontex and the electoral success of right-parties are only some of the problems.
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, extending into surrounding countries are the main trigger for growing xenophobia and racism.

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on all musicians, artists, clubs and the surrounding european communities to support this
cause in Berlin - stand up worldwide against the ongoing existance and epedemic of racism.
Sign up or announce concerts in support of Berlinsound Strike today.

Anonymous said...

berlinsoundstrike.org/
International solidarity with AltoArizona and Soundstrike Arizona, USA. Stop SB1070.
Peace & justice everywhere.

SoundStrike is also an international call against xenophobia, racism and wars everywhere..

In April 2010 Arizonas Governeur signed SB 1070 (Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act ) into law. Since then, at least 17 cities across the US have passed official boycotts of the state of Arizona, helping to galvanize a renewed national immigrants rights movement.

Artists from across the USA call for a boycott against the new discriminatory anti immigration laws. They rejct to perform in Arizona and states that introduced the same law. Many artists support Strike Sound with their names, and give solidarity concerts etc.

The state of Arizona is facing multiple lawsuits and the Justice Department filed its own suit. In July 2010 a federal judge granted a preliminary injunction that blocked the most controversial parts of the law before it was to take effect. The injunction means that, at least for now, police are prevented from questioning people's immigration status if there is reason to believe they are in the country illegally.

Provisions of the law making it a crime to fail to apply for or carry alien registration papers or "for an unauthorized alien to solicit, apply for, or perform work," where also blocked and a provision "authorizing the warrantless arrest of a person" if there is reason to believe that person might be subject to deportation.

21 states are following Arizona’s lead. We’ve found five states in which legislators have introduced laws that mirror the one in Arizona and 16 in which politicians say they plan to introduce bills. These copycat bills are not merely following Arizona’s lead. Rather, the bills are the fruits of a concerted political strategy seeded by the far-right group Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR)

FAIR is committed to ending immigration outright and creating conditions so unlivable that immigrants self deport. If 20 other states do in fact follow suit, we’ll be seeing a near national-scale policy of apartheid.

It is now legitimate politics to propose a law that criminalizes the very existence of millions of people and implements something akin to racial apartheid.

Europe is facing similar threatening developments. The deportation of the Roma in France, the semi-racist remarks of german Bundesbanker Sarrazin, Geert Wilders, activities of the EU’s border agency Frontex and the electoral success of right-parties are only some of the problems.
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, extending into surrounding countries are the main trigger for growing xenophobia and racism.

Berlin Sound Strike would appreciate your support to the Soundstrike movement and calls
on all musicians, artists, clubs and the surrounding european communities to support this
cause in Berlin - stand up worldwide against the ongoing existance and epedemic of racism.
Sign up or announce concerts in support of Berlinsound Strike today.

TorontoSHARP said...

I think people 900 people just found the thought of Paulie camping out on the immigration minister's front lawn really amusing personally.

Y_I_Otter said...

+/- 900 voters of 140,000 voting for Fromm isn't too far off what I'd have predicted, even assuming they endorsed his policies.

At any given time there are going to be a goodly number of cranky, politically inastute folks in favour of supporting their fellow cranks. It's no secret that the anonymity of the polling booth can tend to make instant radicals out of people who wouldn't be caught dead in the company of fruitcakes like Fromm-- especially anyplace the media might be taking pictures or capturing video for publication or broadcast.

I'd worry if he could motivate numbers like that to attend his rallies, though.