27 October 2014

Election Night in Ontario...

Or, perhaps better put, yet another night of futility and frustration.

Now while the rest of the country will be focused on the mayoral race in Toronto and specifically who among the big three with take the top job (our money is on Tory, though we still hold out hope for Chow), we here at the Collective have a much more modest mandate.

We're going to look at a few races where some of the boneheads we cover here are running.

We begin with former Canadian Nazi leader John Beattie who is running for the position of Deputy Reeve in Minden. We aren't very familiar with voting practices in rural Ontario, but we are going to suggest that Beattie will receive less than 40 votes total.

Moving on to Toronto there are a few candidates running. 

Don Andrews is again running for mayor. Based on his previous total and because of the high profile for this election, we are going to guess he takes about 1300 votes.

At the ward level, we are making the following predictions:

Neo-nazi and convicted murderer Christopher Brosky in Ward 28: 150 - 200 
Long-time Andrews supporter and Nationalist Party member Bob Smith in Ward 31: 200 - 250
James Sears aka "Dimitri the Lover" (lost medical licence for sexual misconduct, misogynist, and anti-Semite) in Ward 32: 450 - 500 (mostly because of name recognition)

The big one though from our point of view is Paulie running for money.... er.... I mean mayor in Mississauga. He ran in 2010 and took 917 votes (or 0.65%). We're going to predict that he will score around the same, though given the long time incumbent isn't running this year, there may be more of an interest driving up the number of voters. We'll say he breaks a thousand and finishes at 1050.

Time will tell, though we will have fun watching the results. We generally suck at making these kinds of predictions so take what is written with a healthy grain of salt.

UPDATE 1: Don't underestimate the power of name recognition. James Sears is currently at 538 after 27 of 33 polls.

Chris Brosky is also doing better than our estimate sitting at 248 after 56 of 65 polls.

Others seem to be under performing at this point though and there are no results yet for Minden. 

UPDATE 2: Sears is currently at 686 with 2 of 33 polls remaining. Brosky has managed 316 with 3 of 65 polls outstanding. It looks like Smith might end around 250 as he is currently at 24 with a single poll remaining. Andrews is at 953 and doesn't look like he'll reach 1300 at this point.

Fromm is currently at 511 with 346 of 416 polls reporting. Doesn't look like he's going to hit 1000 and his percentage of the total vote is 0.5%, lower than 2010.

Nothing on Beattie, though I'm guessing that once there is a result, the final outcome will be quick.

UPDATE 3: Sears finishes with 797 votes, more than we had guessed, though given he claimed to be ahead in the polls, scoring 3.08% to the winner's 60.916% doesn't even count as a moral victory. Smith finishes with 256 votes, so we did a decent job of predicting at least one election (we did sort of imply that we sucked at this). Brosky 325 votes (or 1.383% of the total in Ward 28).

Fromm doesn't look like he'll be breaking 1000 and is not, as he had claimed, competitive in the race (shocking, we know). Andrews might also struggle to break 1000 votes. Still waiting on Minden, though that looks to be any time this hour now.

UPDATE 4: Looks like Bob Andrews might not even reach the vote tally from 2010. With 1 polling station remaining, he has 1012 votes. And Fromm also looks like he might only barely break 800(correction: he might not break 800).

Finally a result in the Minden race. The incumbent has been re-elected. Nothing about Beattie's vote tally, but we suspect the word minuscule might be appropriate. 

UPDATE 5: Last update. Results in Minden has Beattie taking 214 out of 4564 total votes. We were not certain how many people would vote in the election (we thought perhaps 1000 or 2000) but were off significantly there. In total, Beattie received 4.6% of the vote, not quite the win he had anticipated.

In the Toronto and Mississauga mayoral election, we over-estimated what Andrews and Fromm would receive. Andrews tallied 1012 votes and Fromm 775, both less than what they received in 2010 despite a higher voter turn out.


Anonymous said...

how many votes did Jason and bonnie divine get when they last ran for the Canadian communist party? or when bonnie ran for mayor?

Anonymous said...

What is the percentage of the general population with diagnosable personality disorders?

Nosferatu200 said...

Oh, neither Jason nor Bonnie did especially well, though it might be noted that when Fromm ran against Jason Kenney in Calgary in 2011, he received significantly fewer votes that Jason did in the constituency he was running in. So even in the conservative bastion of Calgary, people would rather vote for a communist than Paulie. ;)

Anonymous said...

but did right wingers do better in liberal Ontario then left wingers in right wing Alberta? what did paulie get when he ran in Calgary?